Wednesday, October 15, 2008

Do politicians ever learn? More stimulus

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Most OECD countries are burdened with huge debts. These debts are the result of policies that encouraged debt creation. The solution of the Australian government is to 'double-up', to in effect support the policy of the Australian Liberal Party by not only continuing the policy of offering cash grants to home buyers, but increasing the grants to make it easier for them to buy. This is great short term policy. But understand where this is going. ITS GOING TO SCREW BUYERS and everyone else, and here is why. These people are going to be taking out variable rate loans because they can see that interest rates are falling, asset prices seem to be reflating. The problem is inflation. We are going to see a lot more inflation. These people are going to be screwed by higher interest rates at some time. That's not to say you should not buy, but this is a traders market, not an investors market. The long cycle is over. This is the time to jump on short waves (rallies), and play on the soft stuff. Do you really want to commit to another home. What else is there? Well I recommend foreclosed Asian property because its still very cheap and higher yields will drive a lot of money there. Otherwise I would stick to trading equities, particularly precious metals. But what them first. They might fall back in the short term because of falling interest rates and a resurging stock market. More likely I see gold consolidating until the rally is over, then gold will take off.
This is another example of politicians compromising the long term future of the country for their short term political careers. We need political reform! Watch my blogs for the answer. I've got a book on this coming.
Andrew Sheldon

ConvinceMe.Net - Anyone up for a debate?